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Sorted by (Issue date descending, Date of update descending, Date of creation descending, Number of collection descending) Add the result to your favourites Refine your searchRethinking adaptation for a 4°C world
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, Vol. 369. N° 1934. Smith Mark Stafford; Horrocks Lisa; Harvey Alex; et al. - The Royal Society, 2011With weakening prospects of prompt mitigation, it is increasingly likely that the world will experience 4°C and more of global warming. In such a world, adaptation decisions that have long lead times or that have implications playing out over many decades become more uncertain and complex. Adapting to global warming of 4°C cannot be seen as a mere extrapolation of adaptation to 2°C; it will be a more substantial, continuous and transformative process. However, a variety of psychological, social and institutional barriers to adaptation are exacerbated by uncertainty and long timeframes, with th ...Sea-level rise and its possible impacts given a ‘beyond 4°C world’ in the twenty-first century
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, Vol. 369. N° 1934. Nicholls Robert J.; Marinova Natasha; Lowe Jason A.; et al. - The Royal Society, 2011The range of future climate-induced sea-level rise remains highly uncertain with continued concern that large increases in the twenty-first century cannot be ruled out. The biggest source of uncertainty is the response of the large ice sheets of Greenland and west Antarctica. Based on our analysis, a pragmatic estimate of sea-level rise by 2100, for a temperature rise of 4°C or more over the same time frame, is between 0.5 m and 2 m—the probability of rises at the high end is judged to be very low, but of unquantifiable probability. However, if realized, an indicative analysis shows that the i ...The role of interactions in a world implementing adaptation and mitigation solutions to climate change
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, Vol. 369. N° 1934. Warren Rachel - The Royal Society, 2011The papers in this volume discuss projections of climate change impacts upon humans and ecosystems under a global mean temperature rise of 4°C above preindustrial levels. Like most studies, they are mainly single-sector or single-region-based assessments. Even the multi-sector or multi-region approaches generally consider impacts in sectors and regions independently, ignoring interactions. Extreme weather and adaptation processes are often poorly represented and losses of ecosystem services induced by climate change or human adaptation are generally omitted. This paper addresses this gap by re ...Water availability in +2°C and +4°C worlds
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, Vol. 369. N° 1934. Fung Fai; Lopez Ana; New Mark - The Royal Society, 2011While the parties to the UNFCCC agreed in the December 2009 Copenhagen Accord that a 2°C global warming over pre-industrial levels should be avoided, current commitments on greenhouse gas emissions reductions from these same parties will lead to a 50 : 50 chance of warming greater than 3.5°C. Here, we evaluate the differences in impacts and adaptation issues for water resources in worlds corresponding to the policy objective (+2°C) and possible reality (+4°C). We simulate the differences in impacts on surface run-off and water resource availability using a global hydrological model driven by e ...When could global warming reach 4°C?
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, Vol. 369. N° 1934. Betts Richard A.; Collins Matthew; Hemming Deborah L.; et al. - The Royal Society, 2011The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) assessed a range of scenarios of future greenhouse-gas emissions without policies to specifically reduce emissions, and concluded that these would lead to an increase in global mean temperatures of between 1.6°C and 6.9°C by the end of the twenty-first century, relative to pre-industrial. While much political attention is focused on the potential for global warming of 2°C relative to pre-industrial, the AR4 projections clearly suggest that much greater levels of warming are possible by the end of the twenty-fir ...La biodiversité au XXIe siècle
Sciences au sud, 57. Institut de recherche pour le développement (IRD), 2011Un groupe d’experts internationaux soutenus par
le programme Diversitas1 vient de livrer ses prévisions
pour la biodiversité au cours du XXIe siècle.
L’un des chercheurs de l’IRD, Thierry Oderboff, qui a
contribué à l’exercice, revient sur ses enjeux et ses
limites.Displacement due to natural hazard-induced disasters : Global estimates for 2009 and 2010
Forced displacement due to natural hazard-induced disasters is a large-scale, global phenomenon. This study focuses on quantifying peak levels of displacement, including those due to preventative actions taken before and after the onset of a disaster, as people are forced to flee their homes and lands.CAWCR technical report, 42. Global climate goals for temperature, concentrations, emissions and cumulative emissions
Raupach Mickael R.; Harman Ian N.; Canadell Josep G. - Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, 2011There are many different ways of quantifying the broad goal of "avoidance of dangerous human interference with the climate system", including targets for global temperature rise, radiative forcing, greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, GHG emissions in particular years, and cumulative GHG emissions ("carbon budgets"). The purpose of this report is to provide relationships between these different statements of a climate goal. Broadly, the approach is to start from target for global temperature increase above preindustrial temperatures (such as two degrees Celsius or any other target, to be met w ...CAWCR technical report, 41. Evaluation and implementation of AUSWAVE
The Bureau of Meteorology has run a version of the WAM model, AUSWAM, for the past15 years. The recent significant changes to the forcing winds with the implementation of the Australian Community Earth System Simulator (ACCESS) system has prompted theevaluation of the WAVEWATCH III®model as a possible replacement.
The implementation of WAVEWATCH III® within the Bureau of Meteorology's forecasting environment is known as AUSWAVE. This report documents the testing and verificationof the AUSWAVE model. The benefits that this model offers over AUSWAM are describedand the error characterist ...Optimizing the Use of Model Data Products
Each model forecast tells a story about the weather events to unfold. As a forecaster, you employ diagnostics to understand and interpret that story, in order to modify it, blend it with other stories, and generate your own forecast. This lesson will help you sift through the abundance of model data so you can understand and interpret the model’s story. Other lessons cover evaluating the model’s story against observations and against your conceptual models of the evolving situation, blending the stories, and adjusting the forecast to add value over an objective forecast. The diagnostic approac ...Skywarn Spotter Convective Basics
The "SKYWARN® Spotter Convective Basics" module will guide users to a basic understanding of convective storms. Through three different scenarios, you will cover reporting and proper communication of local storm reports to the National Weather Service (NWS), personal safety during these events, and field identification of convective storm hazards. After completing the scenarios, you will be given the opportunity to practice identifying storm features from a spectrum of photos.Volcanic Ash: Introduction
Provides a concise introduction to volcanic ash through the examples of the Mt. Pinatubo and Eyjafjallajökull eruptions. This is the introduction to a four-part series on Volcanic Ash.Volcanic Ash: Volcanism
This module is the second in the four-part Volcanic Ash series. It provides information about the geological, and geophysical processes related to volcanic activity and volcanic ash in the atmosphere and on the ground. It discusses four types of volcanic eruptions and describes six major volcanic hazards: Tephra Pyroclastic flow Lahar Lava flow Volcanic gas Tsunami
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