[article] 
Statistical Reconstruction of the Antarctic Oscillation Index Based on Multiple Proxies
Available online: http://www.iapjournals.ac.cn/aosl/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=AOSL10053
Zi-Yin Zhang ; Dao-Yi Gong ; Xue-Zhao He ; Yang-Na Lei ; Sheng-Hui Feng
in Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters >
Volume 3 Number 5 (16 September 2010) . - p.283-287
Based on multiple proxies from the Southern Hemisphere, an austral summer (December-January-February: DJF) Antarctic Oscillation Index (AAO) since 1500 A.D. was reconstructed with a focus on interannual to interdecadal variability (< 50 a). By applying a multivariate regression method, the observational AAO-proxy relations were calibrated and cross-validated for the period of 1957-89. The regressions were employed to compute the DJF-AAO index for 1500-1956. To verify the results, the authors checked the explained variance (r2), the reduction of error (RE), and the standard error (SE). Cross-validation was performed by applying a leave-one-out validation method. Over the entire reconstruction period, the mean values of r2, RE, and SE are 59.9%, 0.47, and 0.67, respectively. These statistics indicate that the DJF-AAO reconstruction is relatively skillful and reliable for the last ~460 years. The reconstructed AAO variations on the interannual and interdecadal timescales compare favorably with those of several shorter sea level pressure (SLP)-based AAO indices. The leading periods of the DJF-AAO index over the last 500 years are ~2.4, ~2.6, ~6.3, ~24.1, and ~37.6 years, all of which are significant at the 95% level as estimated by power spectral analysis.
Language(s): English
Format: Digital (Free), Hard copyTags: Meteorology ; Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) ; Research ; Numerical simulation 
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