Guidelines on Communicating Forecast Uncertainty

  Available online: Full text

Communicating the uncertainty of the forecast is vital to users. It allows them to make better decisions that are attuned to the reliability of the forecast. It also helps to manage the expectations of users for accurate forecasts. These Guidelines address the issue of communicating forecast uncertainty. Although they include a discussion on the sources of uncertainty, and touch on the related science (e.g. probabilistic forecasting, the use of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) ensembles), this is not their focus. Rather, the emphasis is on how National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) can incorporate uncertainty information in their hydrometeorological forecast services, including the best ways to communicate this information to the benefit of users.

Collection(s) and Series: WMO/TD- No. 1422; PWS- No. 18

Language(s): English; Other Languages: French, Spanish

Tags: Information management ; Guidelines ; Weather service ; Data dissemination ; Forecast uncertainty ; Service Delivery Division (SDD) Add tag

Translated under the title

 Principes Directeurs Pour la Communication Relative à l'incertitude des prévisions (2008)

 Directrices sobre la comunicación de la incertidumbre de las predicciones (2008)