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Thesis from WMO Fellowship Division
Thesis from WMO Fellowship Division
For several decades, through its fellowship programme, WMO has trained many experts from developing countries. Highly commendable theses/dissertations have been prepared by these fellows in partial fulfillment of requirements for their post-graduate studies.
Given the limited information available to experts and students alike on issues related to meteorology, hydrology and allied disciplines we wish to share as much research related information as possible, through the WMO online library, on the work of the postgraduate fellows. Hence, this online dissemination of excerpts of theses/dissertations prepared by WMO fellows.
We hope readers will find the materials useful. Should you have any inquires, please contact fel(at)wmo.int (Please replace (at) by @).
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Analysis of heavy rainfall events over Dar es Salaam city: A necessity to lessen flood risks (2012)
Wilbert Timiza Muruke - Kyoto University, 2012.Floods are a threat to many cities especially in the developing countries and cities found near the coastal areas where the population pressure, unplanned settlements and poor infrastructures are most evident. Climate change also poses a higher flood risks in these areas due to increased frequency...English
 Analysis of heavy rainfall events over Dar es Salaam city: A necessity to lessen flood risks
>Wilbert Timiza Muruke. Published by: Kyoto University, 2012
Floods are a threat to many cities especially in the developing countries and cities found near the coastal areas where the population pressure, unplanned settlements and poor infrastructures are most evident. Climate change also poses a higher flood risks in these areas due to increased frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events. In this study analysis of extreme rainfall over Dar es Salaam city in Tanzania was done. The analysis employed empirical as well as hydrological frequency modeling to annual maximum daily rainfall events for 5 of the meteorological stations found within the city. A flood risk map to facilitate in flood forecasting and warning was also made using GIS techniques. The results suggest an increase in intensity of extreme rainfall events and the GEV families of hydrologic frequency analysis models were found to fit the data set better. The later results lead to better estimation of return periods. These findings are useful information to the city planners (e.g. hydrological designers), decision makers as well as the general public in the fight against flood risks in the city of Dar es Salaam.
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Language(s): English
Format: Digital, 29 p. (ill., charts, maps)
Access Type: Available online for logged in users
Keywords: Flood, Natural hazards, Precipitation, Thesis - WMO Fellowship Division, United Republic of Tanzania
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Climate Prediction and Monitoring for Egypt (2012)
Ebrahim Mostafa Awatif, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (United States) - NOAA, 2012.Apart from the northern coast, most of Egypt is desert. However, the northern coastal region experiences some precipitation mainly during winter. We investigate the variability of wintertime (December, January and February) precipitation in North Egypt during the 30-yr interval 1976-2005 and its...English
 Climate Prediction and Monitoring for Egypt
>Ebrahim Mostafa Awatif, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (United States). Published by: NOAA, 2012
Apart from the northern coast, most of Egypt is desert. However, the northern coastal region experiences some precipitation mainly during winter. We investigate the variability of wintertime (December, January and February) precipitation in North Egypt during the 30-yr interval 1976-2005 and its relationship with the North Atlantic Oscillation during winter and subtropical jet stream.
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Language(s): English
Format: Digital, 44 p. (ill., charts, maps)
Access Type: Available online for logged in users
Keywords: Climate, Climate monitoring, Climate prediction, Egypt, Precipitation, Thesis - WMO Fellowship Division
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Climate Prediction and Monitoring for Uganda (2012)
Herbert Kikonyogo, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (United States) - NOAA, 2012.Uganda is located between latitudes 1.5 0 S to 4.5 0 N and longitudes 28o E to 35 0 E. It contains complex topography that includes large Lakes, Rivers, Great Rift Valley and Mountains, and supports varied wildlife of scientific and economic value. Due to its Equatorial location, this country is...English
 Climate Prediction and Monitoring for Uganda
>Herbert Kikonyogo, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (United States). Published by: NOAA, 2012
Uganda is located between latitudes 1.5 0 S to 4.5 0 N and longitudes 28o E to 35 0 E. It contains complex topography that includes large Lakes, Rivers, Great Rift Valley and Mountains, and supports varied wildlife of scientific and economic value. Due to its Equatorial location, this country is expected to receive abundant rainfall throughout the year. This is, however, not the case as frequent occurrences of years of insufficient rainfall for agricultural activities have been observed. Rainfall over Uganda exhibits large spatial and temporal variability. The inter-annual variability has featured extreme rainfall events like floods and droughts with their associated socio-economic impacts. This has made rainfall an important climatic parameter that must be considered in economic planning for the country. The objective of this study was to forecast the March – May (MAM) rainfall over Uganda using the empirical statistical models.
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Language(s): English
Format: Digital, 34 p. (ill., charts, maps)
Access Type: Available online for logged in users
Keywords: Climate, Climate monitoring, Climate prediction, Precipitation, Thesis - WMO Fellowship Division, Uganda
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Climate Prediction and Monitoring for Burundi (2012)
Aaron Ntiranyibagira, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (United States) - NOAA, 2012.“The dominant pattern of Burundi rainfall is the seasonal move of the dominant Intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), the Congo air mass and the interconnection with EL Nino/Southern oscillation (ENSO) phenomena. Much of Burundi experiences a bimodal seasonal distribution of rainfall with maxima...English
 Climate Prediction and Monitoring for Burundi
>Aaron Ntiranyibagira, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (United States). Published by: NOAA, 2012
“The dominant pattern of Burundi rainfall is the seasonal move of the dominant Intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), the Congo air mass and the interconnection with EL Nino/Southern oscillation (ENSO) phenomena. Much of Burundi experiences a bimodal seasonal distribution of rainfall with maxima occurring in the March- April and November. The Interannual variability of rainfall in Burundi shows interesting association with atmospheric and oceanic phenomena. We investigate the variability of rainfall using OND (October, November, December) and MAM (March, April, May) precipitation in Burundi during the 30-yr interval 1979-2010 and its relationship with the Global Sea Surface Temperatures over Atlantic, Indian and Pacific ocean, Mean sea level pressure (MSLP), Zonal winds at 850 HPA and the Geopotential height at 500 Hpa.”
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Language(s): English
Format: Digital, 42 p. (ill., charts, maps)
Access Type: Available online for logged in users
Keywords: Burundi, Climate, Climate monitoring, Climate prediction, Precipitation, Thesis - WMO Fellowship Division
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The ground truthing of ten day TAMSAT and NOAA CPC rainfall estimates over the western region of Uganda (2012)
Samuel Edward Senkunda - Nairobi [Kenya] : University of Nairobi - Department of Meteorology, 2012.Rainfall products from operational algorithms like the TAMSAT and the NOAA CPC African Rainfall Estimate are being used for many diverse meteorological, climatological, hydrological, agricultural, and other applications. It is therefore important to have an idea of their accuracy and expected error...English
 The ground truthing of ten day TAMSAT and NOAA CPC rainfall estimates over the western region of Uganda
>Samuel Edward Senkunda. Published by: Nairobi [Kenya] : University of Nairobi - Department of Meteorology, 2012
Rainfall products from operational algorithms like the TAMSAT and the NOAA CPC African Rainfall Estimate are being used for many diverse meteorological, climatological, hydrological, agricultural, and other applications. It is therefore important to have an idea of their accuracy and expected error characteristics. This is done by validating the satellite precipitation estimates against "ground truth" from rain gauge observations. One of the biggest challenges in generating real time climate information for decision support is monitoring rainfall performance over the western region of Uganda, which is characterized by a very sparse rainfall observation station network that has continued to degenerate over the past years. This has resulted into marked inconsistencies and gaps in gauge data. This region has a marked spatial and temporal rainfall variability which is attributed to its raised terrain, which is characterizing the western highland region together with the western albertine rift region. The highly variable rainfall in the tropics directly and indirectly affects different socio-economic sectors including agricultural production, water resources management, transport, construction, crop pest monitoring, disaster management, oil exploration among others. It is therefore essential to measure areal rainfall on real time basis in order to see the influence of the variable rainfall on such sectors.
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Language(s): English
Format: Digital/Hard copy, 48 p. (ill., charts, maps)
Access Type: Available online for logged in users
Keywords: Meteorology, Observations, Precipitation, Satellite, Thesis - WMO Fellowship Division, Uganda
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Barcode Call number Media type Location Section Status 008290 B 556 2012 GRO Book or report Main library External publications Available ![]()
Storm surges and coastal erosion in Bangladesh - State of the system, climate change impacts and 'low regret' adaptation measures (2012)
Mohammad Mahtab Hossain - Leibniz Universität, 2012.The effects of global environmental change, including coastal flooding stemming from storm surges as well as reduced rainfall in drylands and water scarcity, have detrimental effects on countries and megacities in the costal regions worldwide. Among these, Bangladesh with its capital Dhaka is today...English
 Storm surges and coastal erosion in Bangladesh - State of the system, climate change impacts and 'low regret' adaptation measures
>Mohammad Mahtab Hossain. Published by: Leibniz Universität, 2012
The effects of global environmental change, including coastal flooding stemming from storm surges as well as reduced rainfall in drylands and water scarcity, have detrimental effects on countries and megacities in the costal regions worldwide. Among these, Bangladesh with its capital Dhaka is today widely recognised to be one of the regions most vulnerable to climate change and its triggered associated impacts. Natural hazards that come from increased rainfall, rising sea levels, and tropical cyclones are expected to increase as climate changes, each seriously affecting agriculture, water & food security, human health and shelter. It is believed that in the coming decades the rising sea level alone in parallel with more severe and more frequent storm surges and stronger coastal erosion will create more than 20 million people to migrate within Bangladesh itself (Black et al., 2011). Moreover, Bangladesh’s natural water resources are to a large part contaminated with arsenic contaminants because of the high arsenic contents in the soil. Up to 77 million people are exposed to toxic arsenic from drinking water (Reich, 2011). Given that background, the current MSc thesis should collect indicators as well as assess and critically discuss the present and likely future state of the coastal system and establish strategies as well as solutions in regard to storm surges and coastal erosion effects in Bangladesh.
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Language(s): English
Format: Digital, 129 p. (ill., charts, maps)
Access Type: Available online for logged in users
Keywords: Adaptation, Bangladesh, Climate change, Erosion, Littoral zone, Natural hazards, Storm surge, Thesis - WMO Fellowship Division
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Stream flow modeling in the Nacunday River Basin (Paraguay, South America) using SWAT model: a dissertation (2012)
Sandra Mongelos - Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee, 2012.Paraguay is a very rich country in water resources, owing to generous rainfall regime, very favorable weather conditions and has significant water resources development potential. To promote planning and development of water resources in the country, systematic studies are required to understand...English
 Stream flow modeling in the Nacunday River Basin (Paraguay, South America) using SWAT model: a dissertation
>Sandra Mongelos. Published by: Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee, 2012
Paraguay is a very rich country in water resources, owing to generous rainfall regime, very favorable weather conditions and has significant water resources development potential. To promote planning and development of water resources in the country, systematic studies are required to understand stream flow behavior. The present study is therefore, undertaken to study the stream flow behavior in the Nacunday river basin using the SWAT Model. The Nacunday river basin is predominantly agricultural watershed with soybean as main crop which is grown under no tillage practices and can be considered as representative watershed in the region. Available hydrological data (January 1999 to September 2009) is split into two groups, one group (i.e. Jan 1999 to Dec 2005) is used for the model warm up and calibration of model parameters. The daily data of 1999 and 2000 is considered as model warm up period and the data from January 2001 up to the end of December 2005 is used for calibration of model parameters. The other group (i.e. Jan 2006 to Sep 2009) is used for validation of the model.
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Language(s): English
Format: Digital, 150 p. (ill., charts, maps)
Access Type: Available online for logged in users
Keywords: Hydrology, Modelling, Paraguay, Stream discharge, Thesis - WMO Fellowship Division, Water
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Barcode Call number Media type Location Section Status 008262 B 556 2012 STR Book or report Main library External publications Available ![]()
Assessment and modelling of climate variability and change in Cameroon (central Africa) (2012)
Gervais Didier Yontchang - University of Reading - Department of meteorology, 2012.Cameroon is located on the west coast of central Africa. It is home to about twenty millions inhabitants relying upon rain‐fed agriculture for food security. With the increasing pressure of climate change, other activities for sustainable development such as transport, energy, water, livestock...English
 Assessment and modelling of climate variability and change in Cameroon (central Africa)
>Gervais Didier Yontchang. Published by: University of Reading - Department of meteorology, 2012
Cameroon is located on the west coast of central Africa. It is home to about twenty millions inhabitants relying upon rain‐fed agriculture for food security. With the increasing pressure of climate change, other activities for sustainable development such as transport, energy, water, livestock and urban settlement are also facing an increasing threat due to extreme climate and weather events. In some cases today’s climate extremes are expected to become tomorrow’s ‘normal’ weather. This assumption stresses the need of understanding the past, the current and hopefully to project local climate behaviour through variability or change assessment and modelling, thereby enabling stakeholders to plan ahead for modifications that may hamper sustainable development projects.
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Language(s): English
Format: Digital, 50 p. (ill., charts, maps)
Access Type: Available online for logged in users
Keywords: Cameroon, Climate, Climate change, Climate model, Climatic variation, Sustainable development, Thesis - WMO Fellowship Division
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Bivariate analysis and synthesis of flood events for the design of hydraulic structures – a case study for Argentina (2012)
Ana Claudia Callau Poduje - Leibniz Universität, 2012.A bibliographic review of the state of art of flood estimation techniques shows the importance of studying floods as multivariate events. The aim of this work is to discuss whether a multivariate analysis is necessary for designing dams or for assessing the adequacy of spillways belonging to...English
 Bivariate analysis and synthesis of flood events for the design of hydraulic structures – a case study for Argentina
>Ana Claudia Callau Poduje. Published by: Leibniz Universität, 2012
A bibliographic review of the state of art of flood estimation techniques shows the importance of studying floods as multivariate events. The aim of this work is to discuss whether a multivariate analysis is necessary for designing dams or for assessing the adequacy of spillways belonging to existing dams. A multivariate approach offers a range of possible events associated to a joint return period, which can be used in a design stage. The multivariate criterion includes information related with the dependence structure linking the flood variables. This dependence is involved in the generation of random flood samples, which are used for risk assessment of existing dams.
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Language(s): English
Format: Digital, 98 p. (ill., charts, maps)
Access Type: Available online for logged in users
Keywords: Argentina, Capacity-building, Case study and lessons learned, Flood, Hazard risk assessment or analysis, Hydraulic, Thesis - WMO Fellowship Division
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Projection of crop yield in Bhutan under climate change using PRECIS regional climate model (2012)
Tayba Buddha Tamang - University of Reading - Department of meteorology, 2012.Bhutan is classified as one of the forty-eight least developed countries with farmers comprising more than two-thirds of its total population. The agriculture sector, which is a significant contributor to the country’s gross domestic product, has been vulnerable to extreme climate events in...English
 Projection of crop yield in Bhutan under climate change using PRECIS regional climate model
>Tayba Buddha Tamang. Published by: University of Reading - Department of meteorology, 2012
Bhutan is classified as one of the forty-eight least developed countries with farmers comprising more than two-thirds of its total population. The agriculture sector, which is a significant contributor to the country’s gross domestic product, has been vulnerable to extreme climate events in recent decades. As an effort to address the potential challenges it will face under climate change, this thesis projects the yields of three primary crops grown in Bhutan, rice, wheat and maize, for the period 2030 to 2050, based on climate projections by the PRECIS regional climate model. In this study, simple linear crop yield regression models are developed between the yield of each crop and weather variables, using observations for the period 1990 to 2010 as training data. Future crop yield is then projected by driving this model with calibrated projections of the relevant weather variables by the PRECIS regional climate model. The calibration of weather variables is done by two approaches, bias correction and change factor which are based on different assumptions of the relationship between the observed and modelled distributions of weather variables.
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Language(s): English
Format: Digital, 66 p. (ill., charts, maps)
Access Type: Available online for logged in users
Keywords: Agroclimatology, Bhutan, Climate, Climate change, Climate model, Thesis - WMO Fellowship Division
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Southern African rainfall physical mechanisms and projected Climate Change with a special focus on Zimbabwe (2012)
Elisha N. Moyo - University of Reading - Department of meteorology, 2012.Aimed at understanding the physical mechanisms driving rainfall systems in southern Africa with a particular focus on Zimbabwe, this research is a step towards improving the representation of those systems in Climate Models leading to improved Rainfall projections. Because RCMs such as PRECIS are...English
 Southern African rainfall physical mechanisms and projected Climate Change with a special focus on Zimbabwe
>Elisha N. Moyo. Published by: University of Reading - Department of meteorology, 2012
Aimed at understanding the physical mechanisms driving rainfall systems in southern Africa with a particular focus on Zimbabwe, this research is a step towards improving the representation of those systems in Climate Models leading to improved Rainfall projections. Because RCMs such as PRECIS are good at resolving subtle systems which modify local climates and possibly mask the anticipated anthropogenic induced (rainfall) change, its use in regions such as Zimbabwe that have complex terrain is crucial. Understanding the physical mechanisms that control rainfall in the current climate also provides insights into the changes being currently experienced in the region. It also enables analysis of the projected changes in circulation patterns that drive rainfall changes in the near future in addition to allowing stronger statements to be made on the expected longer term changes in rainfall. Thus paves leading to improved impact, vulnerability and adaptation studies as well integration of Climate Risk Management practices like Weather Index Insurance into development and economic planning.
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Language(s): English
Format: Digital, 101 p. (ill., charts, maps)
Access Type: Available online for logged in users
Keywords: Climate, Climate change, Climate projection, Precipitation forecasting, Thesis - WMO Fellowship Division, Zimbabwe
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Capturing Recent Climate Variations in the Extreme Southern Caribbean with Projections for the Near and Medium Terms: A Downscaling Approach for Trinidad and Tobago (2012)
Kenneth Anthony Kerr - University of Reading - Department of meteorology, 2012.To mitigate adverse effects of future extremes in climate in the extreme southern Caribbean and Trinidad and Tobago require a sound understanding of the science of the climate, along with realistic and region specific projection outputs; in order that an effective response can be provided by...English
 Capturing Recent Climate Variations in the Extreme Southern Caribbean with Projections for the Near and Medium Terms: A Downscaling Approach for Trinidad and Tobago
>Kenneth Anthony Kerr. Published by: University of Reading - Department of meteorology, 2012
To mitigate adverse effects of future extremes in climate in the extreme southern Caribbean and Trinidad and Tobago require a sound understanding of the science of the climate, along with realistic and region specific projection outputs; in order that an effective response can be provided by respective regions. As a step towards achieving this, downscaling GCM outputs through RCMs is useful at the local and regional scales because it can provide finer detailed and more user friendly output required for planning. Moreover, it is an avenue through which more profound understanding of the science of the climate common to southern Caribbean region can be achieved, which is a prerequisite for effective decision is making in the region. This study addressed questions related to whether PRECIS, a regional climate modelling system, has the skill and quality, to reproduce recent and realistic near and medium term future climates of the extreme southern Caribbean with some focus on Trinidad and Tobago. The findings of the research revealed several observations in relation to the aim of the research. Temperature and rainfall variability in the region have changed in the recent past and given the observed trends are likely to continue changing in the future but with amplifications. PRECIS can adequately reproduce these changes along with the known annual cycle patterns of temperature and rainfall in the ESC and Trinidad and Tobago.
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Language(s): English
Format: Digital, 85 p. (ill., charts, maps)
Access Type: Available online for logged in users
Keywords: Caribbean, Climate, Climate change, Climate projection, Thesis - WMO Fellowship Division, Trinidad and Tobago
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Verification of mobile weather alert forecasts over Lake Victoria in Uganda (2012)
Khalid Y. Muwembe - University of Reading - Department of meteorology, 2012.Several studies suggest that weather patterns over Lake Victoria are highly variable, with wind gusts in the vicinity of thunderstorms suddenly thrashing up high waves capable of capsizing small fishing boats. In order to improve safety on the lake, the Mobile Weather Alert (MWA) service is...English
 Verification of mobile weather alert forecasts over Lake Victoria in Uganda
>Khalid Y. Muwembe. Published by: University of Reading - Department of meteorology, 2012
Several studies suggest that weather patterns over Lake Victoria are highly variable, with wind gusts in the vicinity of thunderstorms suddenly thrashing up high waves capable of capsizing small fishing boats. In order to improve safety on the lake, the Mobile Weather Alert (MWA) service is implemented by utilising mobile phone technology to provide daily weather forecasts that reduces vulnerability of fishermen to weather hazards. This service was developed as a pilot scheme under the WMO Severe Weather Forecast Demonstration Project (SWFDP). An evaluation of MWA forecasts over Lake Victoria has been carried out using binary forecast verification methods based on a standard contingency table.
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Language(s): English
Format: Digital, 68 p. (ill., charts, maps)
Access Type: Available online for logged in users
Keywords: Thesis - WMO Fellowship Division, Uganda, Weather, Weather forecasting, Weather service
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Lesotho Climate Change Projections (2012)
France Mokoena - University of Reading - Department of meteorology, 2012.Lesotho is a small mountainous country is southern Africa. Lesotho is a temperate region that has four distinct seasons; spring, summer, autumn and winter. It is among countries that are vulnerable to climate change impacts. As such, future climate projections are vital to the country. Lesotho has...English
 Lesotho Climate Change Projections
>France Mokoena. Published by: University of Reading - Department of meteorology, 2012
Lesotho is a small mountainous country is southern Africa. Lesotho is a temperate region that has four distinct seasons; spring, summer, autumn and winter. It is among countries that are vulnerable to climate change impacts. As such, future climate projections are vital to the country. Lesotho has submitted her first and the only report (FNC) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 2000. The report includes vulnerability and adaptation (V&A) assessment developed using the first generation low resolution Global Climate Models (GCMs) output. This study was aimed at developing climate change scenarios using a high resolution Regional Climate Model (RCM) called PRECIS which was developed by UK Met Office (UKMO). The results obtained from PRECIS are compared to FNC results and will also contribute towards the next V&A assessment. The work is unique in that it is the first study carried out to develop climate scenarios using high resolution RCM (50km grid space) which is driven by boundary data from five Physically Perturbed Ensemble (PPE) models of HadCM3 over Lesotho. In addition, changes in average annual/seasonal rainfall and temperatures as well as changes in variability of seasonal rainfall and temperatures in Lesotho are projected throughout the century (2010-2039, 2040-2069 and 2070-2099).
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Language(s): English
Format: Digital, 81 p. (ill., charts, maps)
Access Type: Available online for logged in users
Keywords: Climate, Climate change, Climate projection, Lesotho, Thesis - WMO Fellowship Division
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Intercomparison of Models - Verification of Moderate Rainfall over Nigeria in the Summer of 2010 (2011)
Onyilo Desmond, Nigerian Meteorological Agency - NIMET, 2011.The science of weather forecasting is only as good as its ability to produce results. Models are some of the tools meteorologists have come to depend on to help them in forecasting and the dependability as well as reliability of a model is measured by its ability to track and forecast ahead of time...English
 Intercomparison of Models - Verification of Moderate Rainfall over Nigeria in the Summer of 2010
>Onyilo Desmond, Nigerian Meteorological Agency. Published by: NIMET, 2011
The science of weather forecasting is only as good as its ability to produce results. Models are some of the tools meteorologists have come to depend on to help them in forecasting and the dependability as well as reliability of a model is measured by its ability to track and forecast ahead of time a given event. Thus this study looked at the inter comparison of four models namely; GFS, ECMWF, UKMET and METEOFRANCE models, three of which are mostly used by the forecast offices of the Nigerian Meteorological Agency.
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Language(s): English
Format: Digital, 27 p. (ill., charts, maps)
Access Type: Available online for logged in users
Keywords: Climate, Climate model, Nigeria, Precipitation, Thesis - WMO Fellowship Division
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